New orders for manufactured durable goods increased $26.1 billion or 9.9 percent to $289.6 billion
Durable Goods Rebound to Green on Headline
Durable Goods Orders for July came out with the headline +9.9% the highest we’ve seen since May 2020.
This follows a downwardly revised -6.9% for June, which happens to be the lowest monthly print since April of 2020. Yet we’ll see it was large purchases from the Transportation sector which pushed this figure to those lofty highs; ex-Transportation, this headline moves to -0.2% — lower than the big downward revision the prior month, from +0.5% originally reported to -0.1% this morning.
Non-defense, ex-aircraft — a proxy for “normal” business spending — came in at -0.1%, slightly below the 0.0% expected. The June figure was revised down from +0.9% to +0.5%. Shipments were weaker: -0.4%, the lowest we’ve seen since May’s -0.6%. Electrical supplies and auto parts were down for the month. “Normal” business investment usually ebbs or flows cyclically.
Good Ship "Transitory"
A recap of the recent Federal Resereve Meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming
Federal Resereve Skipper William Powell spoke of his "Folly" of climbing aboard the good ship "Transitory".
As I listened to his speech it brought to mind
what his Europen Counterpart EU Centeral Bank head Christine Lagarde said to the World Bank Back in April of 2023.
In her presentation she referenced Earnest Hemingways comments on how things may change:
So, we need to be ready for the new reality that may well lie ahead. The time to think about how to respond to changing geopolitics is not when fragmentation is upon us, but before. Because, if I may paraphrase Ernest Hemingway, fragmentation can happen in two ways: gradually, and then suddenly.
Check it out:
Skipper Powell went on to say that once they realized they were off course they went on to change their heading.
The full text may be downloaded here:
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